During
the Christmas season (no generic “holidays” here) it may be helpful to reflect
upon this year’s events in Iraq and Syria, both part of Biblical geography.
This
year the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS, aka ISIL or just IS) made
substantial territorial gains, continuing to attract thousands of foreign
volunteers, and often drubbing the U.S. sponsored Iraqi army. That
despite an unopposed Allied air campaign throughout the operating area.
Conventional
airpower wisdom holds that the desert is Airpower Country because there's no
place to hide. The RAF did rawther well with its little known 1920s-30s Air
Control scheme in Iraq but that was mainly against tribal banditti rather than
organized military forces. ISIS is very much an organized military force,
and reminds me of the Waffen SS:
ideologically fanatic AND professionally competent.
The
reason that airpower has had so little effect is, in a word, targeting.
Basically it’s a repeat of the largely failed (and likely illegal, not
that it matters) Libya op. NATO (and eventually the U.S.) had total air
supremacy but it made little difference on the ground, at least partly because
of concern about civilian casualties. Today we're largely limited to
plinking specific targets such as vehicles, bulldozers, and artillery tubes. It
may help but it will not and cannot decide the issue.
For
airpower to be truly effective, it needs an area target--a massed troop
concentration. ISIS is far too smart for that, and seems to get along fine.
Frequent
drone and fighter-bomber strikes have prompted U.S. government
spokesmen—uniformed and otherwise—to assure us that ISIS’ ability to coordinate
and control actions has been diminished. Not that it’s obvious, but that’s
the claim. It comes from the same people who said “If you like your
health plan, you can keep it.”
A
bit of historic background:
This
month marks the 70th anniversary of the Battle of the Bulge. In December
1944 Germany was on the strategic ropes, reeling from six months of defeats on
the Western Front while the Soviets steamrolled from the East. Some
famous and semi-famous star wearers believed that Nazi Germany was on the verge
of collapse.
Then
on the morning of the 16th, Panzers clanked out of the mist in Belgium’s
Ardennes Forest—the same “impassable” area where Panzers had clanked in the Blitzkrieg four and a half years
before. The Allies were taken by surprise, having no indication of the
massive attack from any intelligence sources.
The
reason?
The
Germans avoided electronic communication. They planned, coordinated, and
launched the biggest surprise of the European war by phone, teletype, and
paper--all secure methods. Yet Hitler launched some 300,000 men and 600+
armored vehicles against the thinly-held American line. It took five weeks and
more than 90,000 Allied casualties to stop the attack. It was the
costliest battle that the U.S. fought in the Second World War, with nearly
20,000 known dead.
That
was 1944-45. Does anybody seriously contend that ISIS is incapable of
similar procedures today, on a far smaller scale?
Nor
is that all.
For
a chilling dose of reality, look up Dabiq, ISIS' online magazine. Slick,
sophisticated, better written and edited than many American publications. We've never seen anything comparable--a
nuanced, multi-tiered, fully integrated military/PR effort, and absolutely
ruthless. Even when Dabiq runs a
photoshopped pic of the black flag over the Vatican, the Church talks of
"stopping" ISIS rather than destroying it.
And
meanwhile, the commander in chief of the U.S. armed forces assured us,
"ISIS is not Islamic."
We
the People naively (some say stupidly) bought into the political rhetoric after
9-11. Dubya Bush said, “They hate us for our freedom.” Batguano.
Radical Islamists are not remotely interested in freedom. They hate us
for existing, and they have a plan to correct that situation, starting with
Israel.
At
that time every politician within reach of a microphone bleated about “cowardly
suicide bombers.” Good lord! I’ve probably interviewed a few
hundred veterans of the Pacific Theater in WW II, including men whose ships
were sunk or burned nearly to destruction by suicide air attack. None of
them—not one—ever mentioned “cowardly kamikaze pilots.” The very notion
removes anyone who utters the phrase from consideration as a serious
commentator.
Like
Imperial Japan’s kamikazes, ISIS—and every other militaristic Islamic
force—cannot be convinced or dissuaded by logic or reason. Both are
examples of committed, courageous, intelligent zealots, absolutely convinced of
the rightness of their cause. They deserve our unstinting respect,
because when we denigrate them with stock phrases, we open ourselves to greater
peril.
The
thing that Mainstreet USA needs to grasp is that despite all the PC hype about
The Religion of Peace, there are millions of Muslims who oppose ISIS and al
Qaeda. Muslims have killed vastly more Muslims than they have killed
Christians, Jews, or others. And if the global Caliphate ever is
achieved, that will merely be the penultimate step in the process, leading to
The Final Battle between Suuni and Shia.
Until
then, if Western Civilization wants a reality check, look at one of ISIS’
favored methods of execution. It’s familiar to anyone who ever stepped
into a Christian church.
It’s
called crucifixion.
What else
does anyone need to know?
