TRUMP, JUMBOTRON AND DEUS EX MACHINA

 
Ancient Greek literature spawned the concept of Deus ex machina—“God as (or from) machine.”  Although actually it’s a Latin calque for the Greek apo mekhanes theos.

In whatever language, deus ex machina could represent an unexpected development or a man-made contrivance that influences the plot.  Certainly that applies to the JumboTron (by whatever name) that captured Donald Trump’s attention on a Saturday evening in Pennsylvania.

But first some background.

Certainly Aeschylus in the fifth century BC never envisioned JumboTron nor anything like it.  The name alone would perplex the sagest of Attica’s sages.  

Some theater historians note that ancient Greece applied the concept to stage settings such as cranes and elevators.  
However, the path to JumboTron was long and varied, evolving from stage plays, operas, and even burlesque shows before live performances were displaced by motion pictures.  An early example of deus ex machina.

Without quite realizing it, I dealt with deus ex machina in the 2019 book with friend and colleague Stephen Coonts.  In The Dragon’s Jaw North Vietnam’s notorious Thanh Hoa Bridge (aka Dragon's Jaw) was the inanimate character that drove the book.  Not quite in the godly category but Steve and I thought it relevant though we did not allude to it as such.

Meanwhile, the link between Greek stage antiquity and XXI century technology is too rich to pass up.

The concept of huge outdoor screens emerged in the1980s when Sony fielded the JumboTron while Mitsubishi provided Diamond Vision.  Sort of like Kleenex and Xerox, apparently Jumbotron has become generic for the device.

Which brings us to Butler, Pennsylvania earlier this month.

As we’ve seen dozens of times on the videos, Trump was leaning on the podium, looking to his right when he was shot.  The JumboTron (assuming that’s the version) does not show on most videos, but he was discussing the data displayed—the huge increase in illegal aliens allowed by the Biden administration.

Therefore:

Without knowing it, the intended victim was looking almost directly at his intended assassin when the .223 caliber round clipped Trump’s right ear.

A few days later, Trump’s former White House physician said that the bullet hit the top of the ear approximately one-quarter of an inch from the skull.  That’s about two-thirds the width of my pinkie fingernail.

If Donald Trump had turned his head perhaps 20 degrees left—certainly 30—he would have died instantly.  

Deus ex machina.  The JumboTron saved Trump’s life.

But it did not spare three Trump supporters: a 50-year-old fire fighter who was killed plus two seriously wounded but reportedly recovering.

Apart from the appalling extent of the systemic security failure—leading from years of toxic hate speech and a long Secret Service culture of irresponsible behavior—is a variety of technical aspects. Experienced shooters have commented widely online and in emails, noting there are still more questions than answers.

The 20 year-old killer used “an AR-15 type rifle” possibly owned by his parents.  But source of the weapon is secondary at present.  More relevant:

What type of sight?  Standard-issue “iron” sights or some type of optic?

At what distance was the rifle zeroed?  Most marksmen prefer rifles to shoot to point of aim at 100 or 200 yards.

How capable was the killer?  Former classmates said he tried out for the high school rifle team (how many of those remain now?) and was an abysmally bad shooter.  Also, reportedly he had personality issues on the range possibly due to bullying in school.  Subsequently the school district denied both assertions.

The shooter fired from a stable position about 135 yards from a stationary target.  If he intended a head shot, that was good marksmanship.  If he intended a body shot, his sights were set far too high.  Maybe a difference of 15 inches or so—a major-major discrepancy that would immediately show on paper in practice.

How big a discrepancy?

In rifle shooting the standard of comparison is minute of angle (MoA).  The size of a group of shots (at least three, usually five) measured at a specific distance.  At 100 yards a one-inch group equals 1.0 MoA.  At 135 yards a 15-inch vertical disparity equals 11 MoA.  That is huge.

With a rifle already zeroed (remembering that individuals’ eyes are different), any competent instructor could coach a newcomer onto a torso-sized target at 135 yards in a short firing range session.  The rifle could be braced on a sandbag or other rest, or on a bipod.  Then it’s a matter of fundamentals: rifle fit to the shoulder and cheek placement on the stock; sight alignment (with metal sights) and sight picture; breath control; trigger release; and follow-through.

Repeat as necessary.

The Butler incident already seems headed for the rarified atmosphere of the John F. Kennedy assassination 61 years before.  Various theories and contradictory statements emerged within days—some within hours—amid a lack of firm knowledge about the criminal and his rifle.  It’s another inanimate object driving the story, whether Lee Harvey Oswald’s imported Italian rifle or the Pennsylvanian’s borrowed AR-15.

But what we do know is that an invention called the JumboTron averted a shattering event in the contentious, continuing conflict of American politics.